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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

But this year's field is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners declining and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this wild and fun year, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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