Rising Verbal Conflict Involving Ethiopia and Eritrean Government Raises Fears of Conflict

Increasing apprehensions are present regarding the possibility of warfare between Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive discourse has intensified in the last month.

Ethiopia-Eritrea border
The Ethiopian government and Eritrea cooperated in the internal conflict in Tigray but they have later become estranged.

What Did Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for passage to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has triggered a fierce rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in the previous year that his country's sea access was an vital issue, statements that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Relations between the neighboring nations have often been tense. After a prolonged battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a long Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it without sea access.

Five years later, a military clash started in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Recent Statements from Ethiopia's Government

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have openly claimed control of Eritrea's coastal city of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and implied the intention to capture it through military means.

Recently, the Prime Minister said the country's "blunder" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "rectified in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrea's Answer to the Claims

Amid persistent warnings from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been limited to concise remarks on social media from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea labeling it "hazardous" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a policy of retaking lost territory.

Government spokespeople warned on mid-September that moves to justify "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Border

There have been few indications of significant troop deployments in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in the country, state television has broadcast completion events of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The director of staff section of the military, the officer, commented lately in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a warning to our adversaries".

Previous Background of the Dispute

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was administered by colonial powers.

After World War II, it was then managed by the British administration before becoming a associated territory of Ethiopia.

But in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor ended this arrangement and Eritrea became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year internal conflict ensued, finishing with the government's loss in 1991. Autonomy was then endorsed by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, causing war in 1998.

Though this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations continued at odds.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two endorsed a statement that the war was concluded – a move that won the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then allies in the country's previous internal conflict in the northern region.

Yet ties have subsequently deteriorated again.

Laura Gutierrez
Laura Gutierrez

Financial analyst and luxury asset specialist with over a decade of experience in precious metals and alternative investments.