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PHEVs emit almost five times more global warming emissions than official figures show, as per a recent analysis.

Widening Discrepancy In Official and Actual Emissions

Data shows that PHEVs emit only 19% less CO₂ than traditional gas and diesel vehicles, according to research carried out by a advocacy organization. This differs sharply with lab estimates, which assumed a three-quarters reduction in pollution.

Analysts studied data from onboard energy use monitors of 800,000 cars sold in the EU from 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that real-world CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times higher than official figures, increased from three and a half times in 2021.

“Actual emissions are increasing, while official figures are decreasing,” stated a senior researcher participating in the report. “That discrepancy is widening and creates a significant problem. As a result, PHEVs pollute nearly as much as petrol cars.”

Primary Reasons Driving the Emissions Gap

Analysts attributed the majority of the gap to overestimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of kilometers travelled in electric mode compared to overall mileage. They determined that only 27% of driving was done in EV mode, while official assumptions assumed 84%.

Additionally, when operating in electric mode, pollution amounts were significantly higher than official estimates. That happened because electric motors were not strong enough to function independently, resulting to combustion motors using fossil fuels for almost one-third of the travel completed in EV mode.

Policy and Financial Consequences

According to calculations, the lowballing of PHEV CO2 output enabled four major automaker companies to escape over €5bn in penalties between 2021 and 2023, by falsely simplifying adherence with European Union fleet-average CO₂ targets.

Furthermore, drivers of PHEVs could pay about €500 more per year in operating costs than would be estimated under lab tests.

“The bold statements that automakers like to make about their plug-in hybrid cars are obviously way off the mark,” commented a automotive analyst. “Buyers are being misled into thinking that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the environment and cutting costs. Actually, PHEVs are only slightly better than standard gas and diesel vehicles in terms of energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and operating costs.”

Political Discussion and Automotive Lobbying

Hybrid vehicles have recently been drawn again into political discussions as carmakers have lobbied the EU to weaken CO₂ targets. A proposed ban on new combustion engine vehicles in 2035 has faced heavy lobbying from the automotive sector and resistance from member states with significant automotive manufacturing.

Several senior officials have proposed PHEVs as a potential “flexibility” solution to introduce in the legislation.

One external energy policy specialist, who was unaffiliated with the research, described the analysis a “highly valuable addition” after a long period in which segments of the automotive industry argued there was too little data to accurately assess actual CO2 output.

“The results show, beyond any doubt, that the difference in lab and real-world PHEV energy use and CO₂ output is much, much greater than for petrol or diesel cars,” the expert said. “All regulatory adjustments regarding PHEVs should be made with utmost care and in the light of this evidence.”