A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
